This figure is assumed to be skewed upwards, as it is generally believed that newer and less skilled players are less likely to display their MMR publicly, and therefore are not considered in the data analysis. Uncertainty Uncertainty is the standard deviation of a player's MMR. Players with high uncertainty are more likely to be matched with players that differ more greatly in skill level, and vice versa. New accounts with few games played tend to have high uncertainty, while older accounts with many games played tend to have low uncertainty. Since normal and ranked matchmaking are tracked separately, a player who has many normal games will still experience high uncertainty in ranked matchmaking if they have only played a few ranked games, and vice versa.
Dota 2 Matchmaking Stats
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This is a short playdota article I wrote to explain matchmaking systems. I won't pretend to be an expert, but I have an understanding of matchmaking algorithms. If anyone would like to correct any of my points, feel free to do so. Your Matchmaking Score Actual matchmaking has nothing to do with "what kills you have" as that is a factor that isn't entirely affected by skill, and has negative results on players who aren't selfish. Which is why such an algorithm would actually be flawed.
Ranked Matchmaking is Coming The next major update will add a ranked matchmaking feature to the game. This mode is aimed at experienced players who want to play in a more competitive environment and know their matchmaking rating MMR. Dota 2 matchmaking has always calculated MMR and used it to form matches; in ranked matchmaking we make that MMR visible.